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    北京市1950—2017年汛期降雨特征分析

    Analysis of precipitation characteristics during the flood seasons in Beijing

    • 摘要: 北京市易发旱涝灾害,同时特殊的政治地位和城市建设的快速发展让北京的防汛任务变得更加严峻。采用线性回归分析法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法以及皮尔逊Ⅲ型频率法对北京市1950—2017年汛期(6—9月)的逐日降雨资料进行分析,同时分析了汛期降雨量时空变化情况。结果表明:1950—2017年的68年间,北京市汛期降雨特点为:①干旱年份较多,连旱连涝或旱涝交替均不鲜见,整体展现出较大随机性,但在局部年际内也表现出“涨落”相交的规律性;②汛期降雨量主要集中在7月、8月;③汛期降雨空间分布不平均,主要集中在东北部地区的平谷、密云、怀柔等地;④汛期降雨总量整体呈下降趋势。

       

      Abstract: Beijing is prone to drought and flood disasters, and the special political status and the rapid development of urbanization make its flood control task more severe. In this paper, the daily precipitation data of Beijing during 1950-2017 flood seasons(June to September)are analyzed by using linear regression analysis methods, cumulative departure methods, M-K methods and P-Ⅲ frequency curve methods. The results show that:(1) There are more dry years, less continuous drought, continuous flood or alternation of drought and flood.It shows a large randomness as a whole, but it also shows the regularity of "fluctuation" intersect in some years.(2) Precipitation in the flood season is mainly concentrated in July and August.(3) The distribution of rainfall in Beijing is not uniform, which is mainly concentrated in Pinggu, Miyun, Huairou and other places in the windward zone in the front of mountains.(4) The total precipitation in the flood season shows a steady decline trend.

       

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