黄河宁蒙河段冰凌预报方法研究
Forecasting methods study for ice condition between Ningxia and Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow-River
-
摘要: 黄河不仅源远流长而且纬度跨度大(介于32°N~42°N之间)。在特殊的地理环境作用下,加之受水流、气温和变动河床等因素的影响,黄河封开河期常会出现冰凌灾害。黄河冰凌预报是黄河水文预报的重要业务内容之一。近年来受气候变化、河道冲淤变化和人类活动等影响,黄河宁蒙河段冰凌特点发生了明显变化,对冰凌预报提出了更高要求,冰凌预报技术不断得到改进和发展。介绍了中短期气温预报模型、指标法和经验相关法预报、人工神经网络预报、水文学和热力学预报模型、冰水动力学模型等黄河主要冰凌预报模型与技术方法及其存在问题;提出在充分冰凌观测的基础上,加强河道冰凌冻融规律研究,开发具有冰凌物理机制和实际预报能力的冰水动力学模型等建议。Abstract: Yellow-River basin is located in northern center of China, mainly influenced by continental monsoon climate. Ice disasters take place during the period of freeze or break up with the impacted of discharge, temperature and variable river bed. Ice forecasting is critical facet to hydrology forecasting. In recent years, ice features in Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow-River have remarkably changed due to the climate warming, river channel sedimentation and human activities, which result in higher requirements for ice forecast. Therefore, ice forecast system has to be continually promoting. In this paper, the key technology of ice forecasting methods and forecasting models are introduced , including medium-short term temperature forecast model, indices or empirical correlation methods, artificial neural network, hydrology and thermodynamics model, as well as river ice hydraulic model. It is suggested that ice hydraulic forecast model need to be build up based on ice condition observation and research on ice regulation in river.