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    付稳东. 1960—2021年淠史杭灌区降水变化特征分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(7): 7-12. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025019
    引用本文: 付稳东. 1960—2021年淠史杭灌区降水变化特征分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(7): 7-12. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025019
    FU Wendong. Analysis of precipitation variation characteristics in Pi-Shi-Hang Irrigation District from 1960 to 2021[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(7): 7-12. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025019
    Citation: FU Wendong. Analysis of precipitation variation characteristics in Pi-Shi-Hang Irrigation District from 1960 to 2021[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(7): 7-12. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025019

    1960—2021年淠史杭灌区降水变化特征分析

    Analysis of precipitation variation characteristics in Pi-Shi-Hang Irrigation District from 1960 to 2021

    • 摘要: 为揭示1960—2021年淠史杭灌区降水变化特征,采用一元线性回归模拟、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析对灌区的降水变化特性进行分析。淠史杭灌区的年、汛期和非汛期降水量均呈现增加趋势,变化倾向率分别为11.6 mm/(10 a)、12.5 mm/(10 a)、2.09 mm/(10 a),汛期增加趋势较为显著。降水量都在2020—2021年发生突变,但变化趋势均不显著。年降水量有9 a、26 a、44 a、3 a的震荡周期,汛期降水量有9 a、26 a、17 a、44 a的震荡周期,非汛期降水量有46 a、20 a、6 a、9 a的震荡周期,且小波系数实部等值线均为正相位且未闭合。结果表明:淠史杭灌区未来一段时间内降水量仍处于增加趋势。

       

      Abstract: In order to reveal the characteristics of precipitation variation in Pi-Shi-Hang Irrigation District from 1960 to 2021, the characteristics of precipitation variation in the irrigation area were analyzed by linear regression simulation, Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The annual, flood season and non-flood season precipitation in Pi-Shi-Hang Irrigation District showed an increasing trend, and the change tendency rates were 11.6 mm/(10 a), 12.5 mm/(10 a) and 2.09 mm/(10 a), respectively, the increasing trend during the flood season is relatively significant. The precipitation has an abrupt change from 2020 to 2021, but the change trend is not significant. The annual precipitation has the oscillation period of 9 a, 26 a, 44 a and 3 a. The precipitation in flood season has 9 a, 26 a, 17 a and 44 a oscillation period, and the precipitation in non-flood season has 46 a, 20 a, 6 a and 9 a oscillation period, and the real part isolines of wavelet coefficients are all positive phase and not closed. The results show that the precipitation in Pi-Shi-Hang Irrigation District is still increasing in the future.

       

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