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    山西晋中地区“2021.10”暴雨特征与洪灾分析

    Rainstorm characteristics and flood disaster analysis of "2021.10" in Jinzhong Area, Shanxi Province

    • 摘要: 2021年10月2-7日,山西发生大范围强降雨,晋中地区正处于暴雨中心,10月3-6日降水量193.4mm,达10月多年均值的5.5倍、年际的40%,是建站以来同期极值。为进一步提高防洪减灾能力,从大气环流角度分析了此次暴雨成因,再从雨情、水情、灾情分析了暴雨特征和洪水灾情,最后结合历史记载分析了10月洪涝时空分布规律。研究发现,公元前362年至今晋中地区10月成灾记录仅11次;1958-2021年10月平均降水量34.9mm,呈波动上升趋势,增加速率1.711mm/10a;丰枯交替和连枯是10月降水的主要特征,降水年相对变率大,达到66%;10月与年际降水变化均存在26a的主周期,相关系数为-0.4027,呈反向实相关,并存在4a的滞后。此次暴雨洪水让水利工作者在指挥协调、预报预警、防洪调度等方面积累了宝贵的经验,但也暴露了河道防洪、农田排涝、监测预警、信息化方面的不足。

       

      Abstract: From October 2 to 7, 2021, a large-scale heavy rainfall occurred in Shanxi Province. Jinzhong Area was at the center of the rainstorm. The precipitation from October 3 to 6 was 193.4 mm, which was 5.5 times of the annual average value in October and 40% of the interannual value, which was the extreme value in the same period since the establishment of the station. In order to further improve the ability of flood prevention and disaster reduction, the causes of the rainstorm were analyzed from the perspective of atmospheric circulation, then the characteristics of rainstorm and flood disaster were analyzed from the aspects of rain, water and disaster, and finally the temporal and spatial distribution law of flood in October was analyzed in combination with historical records. It was found that there are only 11 records of disasters in October in Jinzhong Area since 362 B.C.; The average precipitation in October from 1958 to 2021 was 34.9 mm, showing a fluctuating upward trend with an increase rate of 1.711 mm/10a. The main characteristics of precipitation in October were the alternation of abundant and dry season and continuous dry season. The annual relative variability of precipitation was large, up to 66%. Both October and interannual precipitation changes have a main oscillation period of 26 years, with a correlation coefficient of -0.4027, showing a reverse real correlation with a lag of 4 years. The rainstorm and flood accumulated valuable experience for water workers in command and coordination, forecasting and early warning, flood prevention and dispatching, but also exposed the shortcomings of river flood control, farmland drainage, monitoring and early warning and informatization.

       

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