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    重庆市复兴河小流域山洪灾害降雨驱动指标预警模型研究

    Early warning model of flash flood disasters based on rainfall-driving index in small watersheds of Fuxing River, Chongqing City

    • 摘要: 暴雨山洪灾害防御地区降雨-流量-水位关系复杂多变,而预警模式常以成灾水位倒推降雨条件,难以全面真实反映内在的降雨产流响应过程。以重庆市复兴河小流域山洪灾害调查为基础,采用降雨驱动指标法,充分考虑降雨强度、降雨量与前期降雨量耦合作用的影响,建立了以降雨强度和有效累计降雨量关系的预警模型,与以往的暴雨洪水及山洪成灾事件作为比对,提出了降雨驱动指标2 000作为立即转移指标、1 800作为预警指标的村级山洪灾害预警模型,为山区小流域山洪灾害防治提供了科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The difficulty of prevention and control of flash flood disasters is that the relationship of rainfall, dis-charge and water level is complicated and inter-changing, and the early warning model based on rainfall condi-tions derived from disastrous water level is unable to reflect the intrinsic rainfall and runoff process. Based on the investigation of flash flood disasters in the small watersheds of Fuxing River in Chongqing, this paper adopts the rainfall driving index method, fully considering the influence of rainfall intensity and early rainfall, establishes an early warning model based on the relationship between rainfall intensity and effective cumulative rainfal, and pro-poses the rainfall driving indicator 2 000 as an immediate transfer indicator, 1 800 as an early warning indicator, which provides a scientific basis for flash flood disaster prevention and control in small watersheds.

       

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